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Permissionless Truth Markets.
Built Onchain, Powered by Outcomes
What's your
base case?
The Prediction Market That Bootstraps Itself
Built on Base, powered by real money and real outcomes.
BaseCase is a next-generation prediction market on the Base network. Instead of a house or market maker controlling the odds, our markets fund themselves. Early users deposit USDC into a simple curve, receive more shares for taking early risk, and once enough money is in, the market opens for everyone to trade. Every market is fully backed, every outcome is settled onchain, and anyone can create or trade markets on real-world events: from elections to crypto prices to sports.
Key Features
How BaseCase Works
BaseCase is built to be simple on the surface and powerful under the hood.
Here are the core mechanics that make our markets fair, liquid, and easy to use even if you’ve never touched a prediction market before.
Bonding Curve Launch
Markets That Fund Themselves
New markets start in a “bonding” phase. When you deposit USDC on YES or NO, you get shares at a price set by a simple curve: early deposits get more shares, later deposits pay slightly more. Once the market hits its funding goal, it “graduates” and opens for trading with built-in liquidity. No external market makers, no waiting for someone else to show up.
Complete Sets Liquidity
Always-Backed Bets, No Broken Math
Every dollar that enters a market mints one YES share and one NO share.
You keep the side you chose; the opposite side goes into the pool as liquidity. This guarantees that the total value of YES + NO always equals the money inside the market, so there’s always someone to trade against and payouts always add up.
Trustless Resolution
Outcomes Decided Onchain, Not By Us
When an event is over, BaseCase uses UMA’s optimistic oracle to decide what actually happened. Anyone can propose the result and put up a bond. If no one disagrees, it’s accepted. If someone disputes it, UMA token holders vote and the correct side wins the bond. This keeps results transparent, tamper-resistant, and independent of the BaseCase team.
What Makes BaseCase Unique
This is our base case.
Prediction markets aren’t new but most of them either rely on heavy VC subsidies, centralized decision-making, or clunky user experiences. BaseCase is built to fix those issues from day one. Here’s how we’re different.
Sustainable From Day One
We charge tiny, transparent fees. A flat fee to create a market, a small graduation fee when it goes live, and a 0.1% trading fee. That means the protocol doesn’t depend on endless VC money to survive, and users don’t have to worry that the business model will suddenly change later.
Built for Creators and Traders, Not a House
On BaseCase, there’s no “house” betting against you. Anyone can create a market for a small fee, and if it attracts enough interest, they earn a share of the liquidity raised when it graduates. Traders get fair, onchain odds instead of fighting a bookmaker with hidden margins.
Community-Owned, On Base
BaseCase runs on the Base L2 network, giving you low fees and fast transactions backed by the Ethereum security model. Over time, control of key parameters will move to token holders, so the people who use the protocol are the same people who help shape how it evolves.
FAQs
New to prediction markets or DeFi? No problem. These quick answers cover how BaseCase works and how you interact with it in plain English.
Question:
What exactly is BaseCase?
Answer:
BaseCase is a decentralized app where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events using USDC on the Base Network. You buy YES or NO shares in a question (for example, "Will BTC close above $100k this year?"). If you're on the winning side when the event is resolved, your winning shares can be redeemed for USDC.
Question:
How does the bonding curve affect the price I pay?
Answer:
Before a market fully launches, it’s in a “bonding” phase. The earlier you deposit, the cheaper each share is. As more people bond, the price per share slowly increases. Think of it like early-bird tickets: early believers who take more risk get more shares for the same money. Once the market hits its funding goal, bonding ends and normal trading begins.
Question:
How are outcomes decided, and how do I know it’s fair?
Answer:
When an event is over, anyone can submit the real world result to UMA’s onchain oracle and lock up a small bond. If the result is correct and no one disagrees, it’s accepted and the bond is returned. If someone disputes it, UMA token holders vote on the truth and the wrong side loses its bond. Because this process happens onchain and doesn’t rely on the Base Case team, outcomes are transparent and economically protected against cheating.
Turn Predictions
Into Profit.
Permissionless Truth Markets.